4th iteration incorporating Wednesday & Thursday's results.
Tables now show Friday starting positions and predicted rises for the remaining two days of racing.
Click on crew name for graphics showing evolution of SAD score with each iteration and spread of Predicted Net Changes over the week.
The Evolution of SAD Score shows score each iteration as a red cross, the vertical extent representing the uncertainty. The previous Torpids score used as an initial estimate and its associate uncertainty is shown as a green box. The Norm for the crew's starting position is shown as a blue dashed line. In the absence of any new information, each iteration the score will relax towards the "Norm" and the error bar expand towards ±2. If new estimates have been supplied the error bar will get smaller. This plot is updated as new scores come in, ie prior to the next formal iteration when the full SAD prediction is rerun. These intermediate scores are located half way between the last and the next iteration on the horizontal axis.The Predicted Net Change histogram plot shows the probability of different net gains in position over the week (blue columns for rises, red columns for falls, white for remaining the same). The dashed line shows the mean change in position averaged over all possible outcomes (all the information for these histograms is extracted from the tables below).
| Pos | Start Crew | Score | Av.Rise | Finishing Crew | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division 1 | |||||||||||
| 1 | Christ Church | 6.5 | -0.4 | Chri 74% | Pemb 16% | Magd 9% | SCat 0% | Orie 0% | |||
| 2 | Pembroke | 6.1 | -0.4 | Pemb 47% | Magd 26% | Chri 17% | SCat 7% | Orie 3% | Ball 0% | ||
| 3 | Magdalen | 6.1 | -0.1 | Magd 31% | Orie 31% | Pemb 18% | SCat 13% | Chri 5% | Ball 2% | SJoh 0% | |
| 4 | St Catherine's | 5.7 | -0.8 | Orie 26% | Magd 22% | SCat 20% | Pemb 15% | Ball 12% | Chri 3% | SJoh 1% | NewC 0% |
| 5 | Oriel | 6.2 | +0.7 | Ball 29% | SCat 25% | Orie 21% | SJoh 11% | Magd 8% | Pemb 3% | NewC 2% | Hert 0% |
| 6 | Balliol | 5.9 | +0.1 | Ball 28% | SCat 21% | SJoh 17% | NewC 16% | Orie 10% | Hert 4% | Magd 3% | Pemb 1% |
| 7 | St John's | 5.6 | -0.5 | Hert 24% | SJoh 22% | NewC 21% | Ball 16% | SCat 9% | Orie 6% | Exet 1% | Magd 1% |
| 8 | New College | 5.7 | +0.0 | Hert 28% | NewC 25% | SJoh 22% | Ball 10% | Exet 8% | SCat 4% | Orie 2% | Wadh 1% |
| 9 | Hertford | 5.9 | +0.6 | Hert 24% | Exet 20% | NewC 18% | Wadh 15% | SJoh 15% | Worc 5% | Ball 2% | SCat 1% |
| 10 | Exeter | 5.5 | -0.5 | Exet 24% | Worc 23% | Wadh 20% | NewC 13% | Hert 10% | SJoh 8% | Trin 1% | Ball 0% |
| 11 | Wadham | 5.6 | -0.1 | Worc 26% | Wadh 24% | Exet 21% | Trin 11% | Hert 7% | NewC 5% | SJoh 4% | Lady 2% |
| 12 | Worcester | 5.8 | +0.5 | Wadh 22% | Trin 21% | Worc 21% | Exet 15% | Wolf 6% | SEdm 6% | Lady 5% | Hert 1% |
| Division 2 | |||||||||||
| 1 | Trinity | 5.5 | -0.1 | Trin 35% | Worc 18% | Wadh 16% | Lady 12% | Exet 11% | SEdm 6% | Wolf 2% | Hert 1% |
| 2 | L.M.H. | 5.2 | -0.9 | Wolf 41% | Lady 18% | Trin 16% | SEdm 16% | Worc 5% | SAnn 3% | Wadh 1% | Exet 0% |
| 3 | St Edmund Hall | 5.3 | -0.6 | Lady 32% | Wolf 24% | SEdm 17% | Trin 11% | SAnn 11% | Worc 2% | Univ 2% | Wadh 1% |
| 4 | Wolfson | 5.9 | +1.2 | Univ 27% | SAnn 26% | SEdm 18% | Lady 14% | Wolf 11% | Trin 3% | Bras 0% | Worc 0% |
| 5 | St Anne's | 5.5 | +0.1 | Univ 30% | SEdm 24% | SAnn 20% | Lady 12% | Wolf 9% | Bras 2% | Trin 1% | Jesu 0% |
| 6 | University | 5.7 | +0.8 | Univ 33% | SAnn 29% | Jesu 10% | SEdm 10% | Bras 8% | Wolf 4% | Lady 4% | Quee 1% |
| 7 | Brasenose | 4.8 | -0.8 | Bras 37% | Jesu 33% | SAnn 10% | Quee 9% | Univ 6% | SEdm 2% | Linc 2% | Wolf 1% |
| 8 | Jesus | 5.0 | +0.0 | Linc 28% | Jesu 25% | Bras 25% | Quee 17% | SPet 4% | Univ 1% | SAnn 1% | SEdm 0% |
| 9 | Queen's | 4.7 | -0.8 | Linc 28% | Bras 19% | Jesu 18% | SPet 18% | Quee 16% | Pem2 1% | Kebl 0% | SAnn 0% |
| 10 | Lincoln | 5.1 | +0.5 | SPet 32% | Quee 21% | Linc 20% | Jesu 9% | Bras 7% | Pem2 5% | Kebl 5% | SHug 0% |
| 11 | St Peter's | 5.1 | +0.5 | Kebl 34% | SPet 22% | Pem2 14% | Quee 14% | Linc 12% | Jesu 3% | Bras 2% | SHug 1% |
| 12 | Pembroke II | 4.7 | -0.5 | Kebl 27% | Pem2 21% | SPet 18% | Quee 17% | Linc 10% | SHug 4% | Jesu 2% | Bras 1% |
| Division 3 | |||||||||||
| 1 | Keble | 5.2 | +1.0 | Pem2 46% | Kebl 25% | SHug 11% | Quee 6% | SPet 6% | Mert 4% | Linc 1% | Chr2 1% |
| 2 | St Hugh's | 4.2 | -0.5 | SHug 40% | Mert 22% | Chr2 15% | Pem2 11% | Kebl 7% | Some 3% | SPet 1% | Quee 0% |
| 3 | Merton | 4.0 | -0.5 | Some 25% | Chr2 24% | Mert 24% | SHug 22% | Kebl 2% | Pem2 1% | Exe2 1% | Quee 0% |
| 4 | Christ Church II | 4.1 | -0.1 | Some 33% | Mert 26% | Chr2 19% | SHug 14% | Exe2 8% | Mag2 1% | Kebl 0% | Wad2 0% |
| 5 | Somerville | 4.3 | +0.7 | Some 23% | Chr2 22% | Exe2 21% | Mert 15% | Mag2 8% | SHug 5% | Wad2 4% | Mans 1% |
| 6 | Exeter II | 3.8 | -0.4 | Wad2 27% | Exe2 24% | Mag2 15% | Some 10% | Chr2 10% | Mans 8% | Mert 5% | SHug 1% |
| 7 | Magdalen II | 3.6 | -0.9 | Mans 26% | Wad2 24% | Exe2 22% | Mag2 14% | Chr2 5% | Some 5% | Mert 2% | SHug 1% |
| 8 | Wadham II | 4.1 | +0.6 | Mans 32% | Mag2 25% | Wad2 19% | Exe2 15% | Lina 3% | Chr2 2% | New2 1% | Some 1% |
| 9 | Mansfield | 4.2 | +0.9 | Mag2 22% | New2 20% | Mans 20% | Wad2 17% | Lina 13% | Exe2 6% | Tri2 2% | Chr2 0% |
| 10 | Linacre | 3.3 | -0.8 | New2 28% | Lina 26% | Mag2 12% | Tri2 11% | Mans 10% | Wad2 7% | Jes2 2% | Exe2 2% |
| 11 | New College II | 3.6 | +0.2 | Lina 27% | New2 19% | Tri2 19% | Jes2 18% | Corp 8% | Mag2 3% | Mans 2% | StJ2 2% |
| 12 | Tri2 | 3.3 | -0.4 | Jes2 23% | Lina 18% | Tri2 16% | New2 15% | Corp 14% | StJ2 12% | Her2 1% | Mans 1% |
| Division 4 | |||||||||||
| 1 | Jes2 | 3.5 | +0.1 | Tri2 28% | Jes2 23% | Corp 16% | Lina 12% | New2 12% | StJ2 8% | Her2 1% | Mans 0% |
| Pos | Start Crew | Score | Av.Rise | Finishing Crew | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division 1 | |||||||||||
| 1 | St Catherine's | 6.0 | -0.7 | SCat 57% | Magd 37% | Chri 5% | Orie 0% | SEdm 0% | |||
| 2 | Magdalen | 6.1 | +0.1 | Magd 43% | SCat 25% | Chri 13% | Orie 10% | SEdm 9% | Quee 0% | ||
| 3 | Christ Church | 5.5 | -1.0 | SEdm 40% | Chri 20% | Orie 17% | Magd 12% | SCat 10% | Quee 1% | NewC 0% | |
| 4 | Oriel | 5.6 | -0.5 | Chri 31% | SEdm 26% | Orie 25% | Magd 7% | SCat 6% | Quee 4% | NewC 1% | OslG 0% |
| 5 | St Edmund Hall | 6.2 | +1.2 | NewC 35% | Orie 21% | SEdm 14% | Chri 12% | Quee 9% | OslG 7% | Magd 1% | SCat 1% |
| 6 | Queen's | 4.8 | -2.2 | OslG 28% | NewC 23% | Orie 20% | Chri 12% | Quee 9% | SEdm 7% | Wadh 1% | Magd 0% |
| 7 | New College | 5.7 | +0.6 | OslG 36% | NewC 21% | Quee 16% | Wadh 8% | Chri 7% | Orie 7% | SEdm 3% | Exet 3% |
| 8 | Osler-Green | 5.8 | +1.0 | Exet 29% | Wadh 22% | OslG 16% | Quee 15% | NewC 9% | Ball 7% | Chri 1% | Orie 1% |
| 9 | Wadham | 5.2 | -0.6 | Ball 28% | Exet 21% | Wadh 18% | Quee 17% | NewC 8% | OslG 7% | SHil 1% | SEdm 0% |
| 10 | Exeter | 5.5 | +0.4 | Ball 27% | Wadh 19% | Exet 18% | Quee 17% | SHil 8% | OslG 4% | NewC 3% | Pemb 2% |
| 11 | Balliol | 5.6 | +0.7 | Pemb 21% | SHil 18% | Ball 16% | Wadh 14% | Exet 13% | Kebl 9% | Quee 5% | Hert 1% |
| 12 | St Hilda's | 5.1 | -0.5 | SHil 20% | Pemb 20% | Exet 12% | Ball 12% | Wadh 11% | Kebl 10% | Hert 8% | Quee 3% |
| Division 2 | |||||||||||
| 1 | Pembroke | 5.3 | +0.2 | SHil 28% | Pemb 27% | Kebl 16% | Hert 7% | Ball 7% | Wadh 6% | Exet 4% | Quee 4% |
| 2 | Keble | 5.1 | -0.2 | Kebl 20% | Some 20% | SHil 18% | Pemb 17% | Hert 16% | Worc 5% | Ball 2% | SJoh 1% |
| 3 | Hertford | 5.0 | -0.5 | Worc 23% | Some 21% | Kebl 18% | Hert 16% | Pemb 8% | SJoh 7% | SHil 6% | Ball 1% |
| 4 | Somerville | 5.2 | +0.0 | SJoh 25% | Worc 23% | Hert 16% | Some 16% | Kebl 13% | Pemb 3% | Univ 2% | SHil 1% |
| 5 | Worcester | 5.4 | +0.4 | SJoh 25% | Worc 17% | Some 16% | Hert 16% | Univ 14% | Kebl 8% | Wolf 3% | Pemb 1% |
| 6 | St John's | 5.5 | +0.6 | Wolf 23% | Univ 19% | SJoh 17% | Worc 15% | Some 13% | Hert 9% | Kebl 3% | Mans 2% |
| 7 | University | 5.1 | -0.3 | Wolf 28% | Univ 19% | SJoh 15% | Worc 12% | Mans 11% | Some 8% | Hert 6% | Kebl 1% |
| 8 | Wolfson | 5.3 | +0.5 | Mans 29% | Wolf 26% | Univ 21% | Mert 8% | SJoh 7% | Worc 3% | Some 2% | Hert 2% |
| 9 | Mansfield | 5.1 | +0.1 | Mans 34% | Mert 20% | Univ 14% | Wolf 14% | SHug 10% | Lina 4% | SJoh 3% | Trin 1% |
| 10 | Merton | 4.9 | -0.3 | Mert 28% | Lina 26% | Mans 15% | SHug 13% | Trin 7% | Univ 5% | Wolf 5% | SJoh 1% |
| 11 | St Hugh's | 4.7 | -0.9 | Trin 30% | Mert 23% | Lina 19% | SHug 13% | Mans 8% | Univ 3% | SAnn 3% | Wolf 2% |
| 12 | Linacre | 5.1 | +0.3 | Trin 34% | SHug 21% | Lina 14% | Mert 14% | SAnn 11% | Mans 3% | Univ 1% | Bras 1% |
| Division 3 | |||||||||||
| 1 | Trinity | 5.4 | +1.0 | SAnn 25% | SHug 23% | Lina 22% | Trin 19% | Mert 6% | Bras 3% | Jesu 1% | Mans 1% |
| 2 | St Anne's | 4.9 | +0.3 | SAnn 41% | Jesu 14% | SHug 13% | Lina 13% | Bras 10% | Trin 9% | Mert 1% | Corp 0% |
| 3 | Brasenose | 4.2 | -0.8 | Jesu 43% | Bras 29% | SAnn 16% | SHug 5% | Lina 2% | Trin 1% | Lady 1% | Corp 1% |
| 4 | Jesus | 4.6 | +0.5 | Bras 29% | Corp 28% | Jesu 25% | Lady 10% | SAnt 4% | SAnn 3% | SHug 0% | New2 0% |
| 5 | L.M.H. | 3.8 | -1.3 | Corp 34% | Bras 20% | SAnt 17% | Lady 16% | Jesu 12% | New2 1% | SAnn 0% | Linc 0% |
| 6 | Corpus Christi | 4.4 | +0.7 | Lady 30% | SAnt 26% | Corp 17% | New2 12% | Bras 6% | Linc 6% | Jesu 3% | SAnn 0% |
| 7 | St Antony's | 4.2 | +0.1 | Linc 33% | Lady 22% | SAnt 17% | New2 16% | Corp 10% | Bras 1% | Jesu 1% | Wad2 0% |
| 8 | New College II | 3.9 | -0.4 | Linc 34% | SAnt 21% | New2 18% | Lady 18% | Corp 7% | Bras 1% | Wad2 1% | Her2 1% |
| 9 | Lincoln | 4.4 | +1.1 | New2 35% | Linc 21% | Her2 17% | SAnt 11% | Wad2 9% | Lady 3% | Bal2 2% | Corp 1% |
| 10 | Wadham II | 3.3 | -1.1 | Her2 29% | Wad2 26% | New2 14% | Bal2 13% | Wol2 7% | Linc 5% | SAnt 4% | SJo2 2% |
| 11 | Hertford II | 3.6 | -0.1 | Wol2 28% | Wad2 25% | Bal2 16% | Her2 14% | SJo2 12% | New2 3% | SAnt 1% | Linc 1% |
| 12 | Bal2 | 3.5 | -0.3 | Wol2 25% | Wad2 24% | Bal2 16% | Her2 15% | SJo2 14% | Wor2 3% | New2 1% | Linc 0% |
| Division 4 | |||||||||||
| 1 | SJo2 | 3.5 | -0.4 | Bal2 31% | SJo2 20% | Wol2 16% | Her2 15% | Wad2 13% | Wor2 4% | Exe2 1% | New2 0% |
| Men's Divisions | Women's Divisions | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crew | Gain | Start | Crew | Gain | Start | ||
| 1 | Wolf | +1.2 | 16 | 1 | SEdm | +1.2 | 5 |
| 2 | Kebl | +1.0 | 25 | 2 | Linc | +1.1 | 33 |
| 3 | Mans | +0.9 | 33 | 3 | Trin | +1.0 | 25 |
| 4 | Univ | +0.8 | 18 | 4 | OslG | +1.0 | 8 |
| 5 | Some | +0.7 | 29 | 5 | Ball | +0.7 | 11 |
| 6 | Orie | +0.7 | 5 | 6 | Corp | +0.7 | 30 |
| 7 | Hert | +0.6 | 9 | 7 | NewC | +0.6 | 7 |
| 8 | Wad2 | +0.6 | 32 | 8 | SJoh | +0.6 | 18 |
| 9 | Worc | +0.5 | 12 | 9 | Jesu | +0.5 | 28 |
| 10 | Linc | +0.5 | 22 | 10 | Wolf | +0.5 | 20 |
| 11 | SPet | +0.5 | 23 | 11 | Worc | +0.4 | 17 |
| 12 | New2 | +0.2 | 35 | 12 | Exet | +0.4 | 10 |
| 13 | Ball | +0.1 | 6 | 13 | SAnn | +0.3 | 26 |
| 14 | Jes2 | +0.1 | 37 | 14 | Lina | +0.3 | 24 |
| 15 | SAnn | +0.1 | 17 | 15 | Pemb | +0.2 | 13 |
| 16 | Jesu | +0.0 | 20 | 16 | Mans | +0.1 | 21 |
| 17 | NewC | +0.0 | 8 | 17 | SAnt | +0.1 | 31 |
| 18 | Trin | -0.1 | 13 | 18 | Magd | +0.1 | 2 |
| 19 | Magd | -0.1 | 3 | 19 | Some | +0.0 | 16 |
| 20 | Wadh | -0.1 | 11 | 20 | Her2 | -0.1 | 35 |
| 21 | Chr2 | -0.1 | 28 | 21 | Kebl | -0.2 | 14 |
| 22 | Tri2 | -0.4 | 36 | 22 | Univ | -0.3 | 19 |
| 23 | Chri | -0.4 | 1 | 23 | Bal2 | -0.3 | 36 |
| 24 | Exe2 | -0.4 | 30 | 24 | Mert | -0.3 | 22 |
| 25 | Pemb | -0.4 | 2 | 25 | New2 | -0.4 | 32 |
| 26 | Exet | -0.5 | 10 | 26 | SJo2 | -0.4 | 37 |
| 27 | Pem2 | -0.5 | 24 | 27 | Orie | -0.5 | 4 |
| 28 | SHug | -0.5 | 26 | 28 | SHil | -0.5 | 12 |
| 29 | SJoh | -0.5 | 7 | 29 | Hert | -0.5 | 15 |
| 30 | Mert | -0.5 | 27 | 30 | Wadh | -0.6 | 9 |
| 31 | SEdm | -0.6 | 15 | 31 | SCat | -0.7 | 1 |
| 32 | Bras | -0.8 | 19 | 32 | Bras | -0.8 | 27 |
| 33 | Quee | -0.8 | 21 | 33 | SHug | -0.9 | 23 |
| 34 | SCat | -0.8 | 4 | 34 | Chri | -1.0 | 3 |
| 35 | Lina | -0.8 | 34 | 35 | Wad2 | -1.1 | 34 |
| 36 | Lady | -0.9 | 14 | 36 | Lady | -1.3 | 29 |
| 37 | Mag2 | -0.9 | 31 | 37 | Quee | -2.2 | 6 |
Pos# Name Avg.Error Bias No.estimates supplied
1 IG 0.080 0.080 5
2 EB 0.150 -0.070 10
3 SJ 0.167 0.033 15
4 NP 0.171 -0.029 7
5 MM 0.180 0.160 10
6 JR 0.188 -0.037 8
7 EM 0.191 0.027 11
8 AD 0.222 -0.006 36
9 TT 0.251 0.041 74
Within the SAD program, a difference of 0.4 corresponds to 1.5 lengths quicker over the course, ie a bump is expected at the finish line.
Don't feel obliged to supply an assessment for every crew - just anything you're confident about, even if they are similar to the numbers already listed (it adds weight to the estimate). Also, you can revise your estimates at a later date, in which case I'll remove your earlier estimate for any particular crew. I don't accept scores of your own college.
Normally I will list contributors by their initials (or any other 2-letter acronym you wish to be known by) at the top of this page, but I won't give out any other information on your identity or which crews you have assessed.
Anyone who contributes information will receive the current list of scores for their own college (scores only - contributor codes removed).
New contributors will have a weight +/-0.5 assigned to their estimate. Those who contributed last Eights will have their scores weighted by their average error, limited to range 0.2-0.5
Email scores to dudhia@atm.ox.ac.uk
Contributor estimates are each given a weight of +/-0.5, but those who proved more accurate last Torpids will have those errors used instead. These weights apply for the iteration in which the score was used, but on subsequent iterations all the older scores are reduced in weight (i.e. recent estimates carry more weight).
The SAD BaStaRD program runs the SAD program and calculates the probability of the actual outcome of each day's racing using the initial scores. It then perturbs each crew's score by +/-0.1, and also the uncertainty in the score by +/-0.1, and recalculates the probability. Whichever perturbation leads to the greatest probability is kept, and the process then repeated. This is continued until, for a given set of scores, all further perturbations result in a lower probability for the actual outcome, and these scores are then taken as the best.
The final result should be scores which best represent each crew's true speed as well as give a means of evaluating the accuracy of each contributor.
If a crew bumps each day, the score that would give the actual outcome with the greatest probability is infinity, so to keep things sensible the original SAD estimates and their uncertainties are used as an a priori constraint.