Reconciling detection results

This page contains results of a project aiming to reconcile the results of two studies into the detection of anthropogenic climate change, Allen et al. (2000) and Hegerl et al. (2000). The project was carried out in collaboration with Gabi Hegerl, Myles Allen, Peter Stott and Reiner Schnur. The results are summarised in a paper submitted to the Journal of Climate [ps].

Summary of results

Two pattern results

• Files in red replicate results in Allen et al. 2000.
• Files in green are compared with results from Hegerl et al. 2000. Hegerl et al. results are marked with a square. Note that there are remaining differences between the analysis methods, in particular Hegerl et al.'s use of annual rather than decadal data, and the use of leading EOFs of the forced runs rather than least-squares trends as fingerprints.

Two pattern G-S results for HadCM2

Two pattern G-S results for ECHAM3

Two pattern G-SIO results for ECHAM4

Two pattern G-S results for ECHAM4

Gabi's plots

• These results include those in the plots above, but also show other models projected on ECHAM3 and HadCM2 fingerprints.
• Stars are G signal amplitudes, circles S.

IPCC figure 12.12